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MARKET EYE
Roaring Fork Valley activity continues to astound. Nearly every
indicator is positive for the investor in the valley, with overall
investment in the area running about 24% more than a year ago, and
inventory continuing to drop at a 30%+ pace. Residential inventory
had surged a bit in 2005 and early 2006 to over 1000 units (still
low historically), but it has retreated again to the 500 unit
territory. This is putting significant upward pressure on prices,
and has contributed to a total dollar volume rise to over $2
billion—it was just $1.3 billion in 2004! Aspen sales volume
is up 25% compared to last year at this time, with available
inventory down 35% from last year. With the absorption rate
approaching 70%, sellers are more aggressive in pricing, but buyers
are paying a lower percentage of asking price than a year ago, and
if sellers don’t like waiting the average 9-month selling period
(higher for homes), they are sometimes pulling back a bit.
Opportunities for
Aspen Sellers
Condominiums
are enjoying continued high demand relative to inventory…the current
absorption rate is over 100%. Some price resistance is reducing the
number of buyers a little, but the pace of sales is still brisk with
the average time on market currently under six months…this is a good
time for condominium and townhome owners to consider selling.
Inventory in the core part of town is continually slim—always a good
opportunity for sellers.
Opportunities for
Aspen Buyers
There still aren’t
any distress sales, but there are some special properties, including
a few not officially on the market (ask us about these “pocket
listings”). With the relatively excessive inventory in relation to
demand (absorption rate), opportunities exist among Aspen homes
priced between $5-10M.
In Snowmass,
where activity is up about 25%, most of the home sales are still
under $2.5M, but the median price is up 21% in a year. Inventory is
down about 20% from a year ago, and here there is also currently a
relatively high absorption rate and short selling times. Snowmass
has followed Aspen’s lead on appreciation, especially since the Base
Village development received final approval and the first phase of
units has sold
Opportunities for
Snowmass Sellers
Unique,
well-maintained or upgraded properties can be extremely quick to
sell and at higher than average prices, especially if updated to
reflect current design trends. Any home priced under $2.5 million
is likely a quick sale, as are ski-accessible condominiums in
upgraded complexes whose owners have paid off recent special
assessments for exterior renovations.
Opportunities for
Snowmass Buyers
Watch Aspen, buy
Snowmass. Townhome buyers over $2.5M currently represent just 9% of
the condominium/townhome market, while the product available is 28%
of the inventory…those could take awhile to sell, which may
encourage sellers to take less. Condominium developments near Base
Village stand to gain from their proximity to that development’s
amenities. And some upper-end homes are still attractively priced,
and could be good near-term investments, given that there will be no
further ski-accessible single family home development in Snowmass.
The Basalt area has
really taken off recently, with sales up 40% and dollar volume up
25%. Prices are up significantly and inventory is still
free-falling.
Opportunities for
Basalt Sellers
This is good news
for local sellers, especially if they want to move up to the Aspen
school district. With the median home price at nearly $1M, there
are an increasing number of buyers for $1M-plus homes.
Opportunities for
Basalt Buyers
Buyers are still
clustering around the under-$600K properties, which has made the
overall median price drop, as well as inventory—anything you can
find in this price area is likely to be a good investment.
Printer-friendly
version of the data below…
Market
Eye:
3-Month ACTIVITY UPDATE, 2/28/07
Market
Eye:
Listing Inventory, 2002 to 2004
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